Suncor Maps $13B Shift From Mining to In-Situ as Base Mine Winds Down
According to Oil Sands Magazine, Suncor Energy used its Investor Day this week to announce a $13 billion expansion program that will shift the company’s production base away from open-pit mining and toward thermal in-situ operations over the next decade, with a goal of sustaining roughly 1 million bbl/day of bitumen production through 2040.
A Decade of Transition at Base Plant
The driver behind the plan is the approaching end of Suncor’s Millennium and North Steepbank mines, which together produced about 260,000 bbl/day last year and are expected to be depleted by the mid-2030s. To backfill that volume, CEO Rich Kruger outlined a phased expansion centered on Firebag, Suncor’s flagship steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operation north of Fort McMurray.
Firebag averaged a record 245,000 bbl/day in 2025, up from a plateau of around 200,000 bbl/day that persisted for nearly a decade. Suncor has already filed an application with the Alberta Energy Regulator to raise Firebag’s production ceiling, and plans to add 30,000 bbl/day by 2028 through gas co-injection, solvent addition, and new infill drilling. Fort Hills is also expected to contribute 25,000 bbl/day of additional output by 2028 as mining operations shift to the north pit, while Syncrude and Base Plant mining should yield another 20,000 bbl/day through process improvements and better feedstock blending. Combined, Suncor expects mined production to reach 700,000 bbl/day by 2028 before the longer-term in-situ ramp-up takes over.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- SAGD construction and facility work will ramp up significantly as Firebag expands and new in-situ capacity is built out. Civil, mechanical, and piping contractors in the Fort McMurray and Cold Lake corridors should be positioning for this work now.
- Wellsite drilling and completions will see sustained demand. Firebag’s expansion includes new infill wells, meaning directional drilling companies, casing crews, and completions contractors can expect multi-year workstreams.
- Central Processing Facility (CPF) upgrades at Firebag will require instrumentation, electrical, and process equipment contractors familiar with SAGD operations.
- Mine reclamation services will become an increasingly large part of the Base Mine picture as the Millennium and North Steepbank operations wind down through the 2030s, opening work for environmental, remediation, and earthworks contractors.
- Turnaround and maintenance contractors supporting the Base Plant upgraders (U1/U2) remain critical. Suncor ran those upgraders at over 340,000 bbl/day last year despite a two-month outage, and keeping that throughput steady while feedstock sources shift will require continued investment in maintenance programs.
For Alberta-based service companies, the next three years represent a transition window. Contractors currently tied to mining support work should assess where their skills translate to SAGD operations and start building relationships accordingly.
