Pacific Link and Pathways Could Strain Canada's Skilled Trades Supply
Two projects, the proposed Pacific Link oil pipeline and the Pathways carbon capture system, could lift Canadian employment by up to 90,000 people between 2028 and 2036, according to ATB Financial figures cited in a new Financial Post analysis. For Western Canadian subcontractors, the headcount is the easy part. The harder question is who fills the welding, pipefitting and electrical crews when those jobs, plus LNG work already underway, compete for the same workers.
Background
The Financial Post reports that Western Canada’s energy sector is heading into what analysts call its biggest building boom in a generation. The labor market looks balanced today, but may not stay that way if Ottawa’s investment ambitions are realized.
Pacific Link was listed as a project of national interest at an Oct. 1, 2026 announcement in Fort McMurray, Alta., with Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith present. The Financial Post says proposed crude pipeline projects, including Pacific Link to the B.C. coast, would add close to three million barrels a day of new capacity through 2035. Pacific Link accounts for one million of that.
The source also points to an approved expansion at LNG Canada’s terminal in Kitimat, B.C., with Phase 2 rendered as fully built in the early 2030s. Woodfibre LNG in Squamish, B.C., is already a construction site. The Financial Post says these projects are likely to strain an already tight workforce of welders, pipefitters and electricians.
Two data points frame the supply problem. Careers in Energy, a Calgary non-profit, reports unemployment in exploration and production roles such as geologists and engineers held at about 3% through the summer. BMO Capital Markets analyst Jeremy McCrea called this a “goldilocks zone” with no excess wage or operating inflation. But ATB chief economist Mark Parsons told the Financial Post that job vacancy rates are already significantly higher in specialty trades than in other industries. In his words, “we’re going into this build boom with an existing supply crunch.”
Analysis
Read the 90,000 figure carefully. It is ATB’s estimate of nationwide employment growth over 2028 to 2036 from two projects. It is not a count of tradespeople needed on site, and the source does not break it down by trade. Some of those jobs will be engineers, supervisors and indirect roles. The sourced trade-specific claim is narrower: welders, pipefitters and electricians are already tight.
The pinch is in construction trades, not engineering. The same source that shows balanced conditions for geologists and engineers says the build-side workforce is a different story. Subcontractors should not take the “stable costs” comfort in the BMO note as a forecast for field labor. It describes the upstream professional workforce.
Wage pressure is our inference, but the source gives early evidence. Nothing in the article forecasts a specific wage increase. But Parsons expects major projects to fill jobs in the near term by luring already-employed tradespeople with higher pay. That is a poaching model, and it hits the contractors that hold the workers.
The anecdotes show the gap. Calgary Red Seal electrician Mike Kerr says his former residential employer raises wages every year, but $45 an hour cannot compete with industrial and seismic work. He says a seismic crew member without a Red Seal ticket, who brings a truck and quad, collects close to $600 a day including equipment fees, meals and a hotel room. He also cites a secondhand report that electricians at Woodfibre earn $60 to $70 an hour with overtime. One worker’s account is not market data, but it shows what a smaller shop is up against.
Boom-and-bust memory is a retention problem. Kerr says he turned down Woodfibre partly because “I’ve seen how those big LNG jobs end,” with a hire-hire-hire cycle followed by layoffs. Parsons offers a related worst case: early projects go ahead but later ones stall. For subs, that argues for pricing crew retention and demobilization risk into longer bids rather than assuming labor can be rehired on demand.
Training won’t close the gap in time. Kerr notes electrician training takes four years and apprenticeships rarely line up with project schedules. Parsons sees more Red Seal registrations but no matching rise in certificates, pointing to low apprenticeship completion. Credential mobility matters too. He says workers should be able to move between provinces, where licensing bodies have long slowed recognition.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- No bid stage exists yet for Pacific Link. The source reports the Oct. 1, 2026 national-interest listing but names no EPC contractor, FEED package or subcontract scope. It also gives no dates for the next gates. The first actionable signal will be a named contractor or labor agreement for the project.
- Plan around ATB’s 2028 to 2036 window. That is the period in which the 90,000-job estimate applies. The LNG Canada Phase 2 rendering points to completion in the early 2030s, so those schedules may overlap.
- Welders, pipefitters and electricians are the named pinch points. Shops in those trades should review current pay against industrial benchmarks before the ramp, using the Woodfibre electrician range ($60 to $70 an hour with overtime, per Kerr’s secondhand account) as one reference, not a rate card.
- Price retention and layoff risk into longer contracts. Kerr’s account suggests experienced workers weigh the end of the project, not just the hourly rate. Subs with continuity between jobs have a recruiting edge.
- Check licensing reciprocity before pulling crews across provincial lines. Parsons says different licensing bodies have long slowed credential recognition. Confirm ticket recognition for each province before you commit crews to a bid.
- Build apprentice pipelines now. With a four-year training cycle and low completion rates, hires made after a project is awarded will not be ready in time.
