PJM Stands to Gain Most From New Transmission Study, $6.7B in Benefits
A new study says the PJM Interconnection stands to capture the single largest chunk of benefits from a slate of proposed interregional transmission projects, a finding that points to sustained grid construction work across the mid-Atlantic and Midwest for years to come. Utility Dive reports that the analysis, prepared by S&P Global’s CERA Consulting for the Electricity Customer Alliance, National Grid and Converge Strategies, identified 13 “high value” transmission projects across the Eastern Interconnection that could generate up to $15.3 billion in net system value through 2050.
Background
The study, titled “Powering Growth and Affordability: The Role of Transmission in Economic and National Security,” was released September 1 and modeled transmission needs across the Northeast, PJM, the Southeast, MISO South and the Southwest Power Pool, according to Utility Dive. Researchers ran base demand and high demand scenarios against both constrained and unconstrained transmission buildouts, with the constrained case assuming no new interregional lines get built.
Under the base demand, unconstrained scenario, the entire Eastern Interconnection footprint would see about $12.4 billion in net present value at a benefit-to-cost ratio of 1.77, Utility Dive reported. PJM alone accounts for $6.7 billion of that value over 40 years, more than triple the combined $1.9 billion projected for SPP and MISO South. The Southeast comes in at $851 million and the Northeast at $393 million, though those numbers climb significantly under the high demand case, according to the study.
ECA executive director Jeff Dennis told Utility Dive the study offers a more customer-focused lens than prior transmission analyses. “Customers need more transmission capacity,” Dennis said, noting that consumers are frustrated watching costs rise from supplemental PJM projects and local builds elsewhere, “and so this study really does show how we can start to address that by refocusing our attention on the transmission that provides the most net benefits.”
The study also flagged that U.S. power supply construction is running at historic levels, with 67 GW currently under construction nationwide, including 27 GW of solar, 17 GW of battery storage, 15 GW of wind and 9 GW of gas-fired generation, per Utility Dive’s report.
Analysis
The math here is straightforward for anyone tracking where transmission dollars will flow next: PJM is the clear front-runner. A benefit gap of $6.7 billion versus $1.9 billion for the next-closest region isn’t a marginal edge, it’s a signal that PJM’s queue of interregional and intraregional projects is likely to get prioritized ahead of comparable work in SPP, MISO South, the Southeast or the Northeast, at least in the near term. For contractors already working PJM territory, that’s a strong argument to keep bidding capacity available rather than chasing greenfield opportunities in less-favored regions.
The study’s emphasis on avoided generation capex as the biggest driver of net present value, followed by production cost savings and avoided local transmission costs, also matters operationally. It suggests these aren’t just new high-voltage lines in isolation. Interregional transmission that lets cheaper power flow into constrained areas can reduce the need for new local generation and local transmission buildouts, which reshapes where and what kind of work gets awarded. Subs positioned for long-haul transmission line work may see more opportunity than those geared toward local substation or plant-adjacent builds in the regions the study flags as lower-priority.
Dennis’s comments about permitting reform and opening merchant transmission investment are worth watching closely. If Congress moves on the permitting reforms he referenced, or if regulators create pathways for large customers or merchant developers to fund transmission directly, that could accelerate timelines for exactly the kind of projects this study identifies. Right now the study doesn’t name specific project names, routes or in-service dates, so contractors can’t yet bid against it. But the dollar figures and regional breakdown give a clear indication of where planning activity, and eventually procurement, is likely to concentrate first.
The advanced transmission technology angle, including dynamic line ratings, is another detail subs should note. The study suggests these technologies could offset higher upfront costs, which may make them attractive to utilities looking to squeeze more capacity out of existing corridors before greenlighting entirely new lines. That could mean retrofit and upgrade work on existing PJM transmission infrastructure moves faster than net-new construction.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Transmission line crews, E&I contractors and civil subs working in PJM’s footprint (mid-Atlantic and Midwest states served by the RTO) should treat this study as a leading indicator: PJM’s $6.7 billion benefit projection is nearly double the combined total for SPP and MISO South, meaning project activity there is likely to be prioritized first.
- No specific project names, routes, or construction timelines were disclosed in the study, so subs should track ECA, National Grid and PJM’s own planning filings over the coming months for the actual list of the 13 identified high-value projects before bidding.
- Contractors specializing in dynamic line rating installation and other grid-enhancing technologies should position now, since the study frames these as a way to offset higher upfront transmission costs, suggesting utilities may lean on retrofits before committing to full new-build lines.
- Firms with permitting and regulatory affairs support capabilities should watch for movement on the congressional permitting reform Dennis referenced, since faster permitting could compress project timelines once specific transmission corridors are named.
- Subs in the Southeast and Northeast should note their regions show smaller near-term benefit projections ($851 million and $393 million respectively under base demand), meaning transmission work there may lag PJM, SPP and MISO South unless the high-demand scenario materializes.
