Oncor Capex Plan to Jump 20% on Texas Load Growth
Oncor’s $47.5 billion five-year base capital plan is expected to grow about 20% in its next annual update, driven by Texas load growth, Utility Dive reports from Sempra’s third-quarter earnings call.
Market Impact
By our math, a 20% increase on $47.5 billion adds roughly $9.5 billion, which would put the plan near $57 billion. Sempra did not give an updated dollar figure. Oncor CEO Allen Nye attributed the increase to “continued strong customer and load growth from a variety of sectors, all over our system.”
Sempra CEO Jeff Martin said Oncor, which serves more than 14 million customers in Texas, recently set a new system peak of 33 GW, up 6% from the prior record set last year. Utility Dive’s data box lists the peak at 33.3 GW, reached in August. Martin called the growth “broad-based.” Data centers are “the lion’s share,” he said, but there is “a significant amount of non-data center growth.”
On the midterm elections, an analyst asked about possible effects on data center growth and on Oncor. Nye said it is “too soon to tell exactly what it all means,” but argued Oncor provides an essential service regardless of which party is in power. He added that “both parties want a strong and growing Texas.”
What It Means for Subcontractors
The source does not break the increase down by project type, region or contractor package. The points below are our inference from a larger capital plan serving load growth across Oncor’s system.
- Line and underground contractors: Call Oncor’s supplier and contractor management group this quarter and ask how the larger plan changes 2027 crew needs. Ask specifically about overhead line, underground and civil crews. Get capacity commitments in writing before the plan is finalized.
- Substation and civil trades: Growth “all over our system” suggests new work is not limited to one corridor. Update your capacity sheet by territory so you can answer quickly on foundations, site prep and substation civil scopes.
- Pre-qualification: The five-year plan is a long-lead signal, so the near-term step is paperwork. Confirm your safety records, insurance and vendor registration are current with Oncor before the updated plan produces new bid packages.
- Pricing and labor: An increase of roughly $9.5 billion across five years competes for the same linemen, equipment and materials. Review multi-year rate sheets and hiring plans now, and avoid fixed pricing you cannot staff.
- Plan update: Watch for the updated Oncor capital plan itself, which Nye said is coming in the “upcoming annual update.” The source does not give a date, so ask your Oncor contact when it will be released. The new figures are what will show where the added money is going.
Election-driven policy shifts are a secondary variable. Nye and Martin both signaled they expect demand to continue regardless of the political outcome, but neither offered specifics.
