According to Rigzone, the Q1 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey found executives from 131 oil and gas firms now expect WTI crude to average $74.04 per barrel by end of 2026, up sharply from the $62.41 average forecast in last quarter’s survey. Near-term expectations also rose, with executives projecting $78 per barrel within six months. The average spot price during the survey period was $94.65.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Higher operator price expectations generally support drilling and completions activity, but the wide forecast range ($50 to $135) signals real uncertainty that could delay capital decisions and contract awards.
- Operators need roughly $43 per barrel on average to cover existing well operating costs, meaning most wells stay active at current prices, which supports steady maintenance and production service work.
- Smaller producers require around $46 per barrel to break even versus $32 for large firms, so subcontractors working with smaller independents face more budget sensitivity if prices soften.
