Nova Scotia, New Brunswick Construction Markets Set to Diverge Through 2035
Daily Commercial News reports that BuildForce Canada’s newly released 10-year outlook points to sharply different construction paths for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, with Nova Scotia riding a wave of hospital and engineering megaprojects while New Brunswick’s housing sector contracts by more than half by 2035.
Background
BuildForce Canada’s annual Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward reports, covering the 2026 to 2035 forecast period, break out separate outlooks for each province. In Nova Scotia, residential construction investment peaks in 2026 before receding through the early 2030s as population growth slows and demand for multi-unit buildings drops. Renovation work is expected to overtake new housing investment by 2032. Non-residential construction, meanwhile, keeps climbing into 2029, fueled by institutional builds like the QEII Halifax Infirmary expansion and the Cape Breton Regional Hospital Development, plus engineering construction tied to mining and utilities projects that BuildForce sees peaking as late as 2035.
New Brunswick tells a different story. The Daily Commercial News notes that the province’s residential sector hit a new investment high in 2025, but BuildForce projects housing starts will fall 56% below 2025 levels by 2035. Renovation activity is set to pass new housing as the top residential investment driver by 2028. Non-residential work will carry the province instead, with core construction starting in 2027 on the Mactaquac Hydro Dam Refurbishment, continued NB Power capital spending, and institutional builds including a new RCMP detachment in Salisbury, the Fredericton Courthouse project, and a new correctional centre in Minto.
Both provinces face a wave of retirements. Nova Scotia expects to lose 8,200 workers, 21% of its 2025 labor force, while recruiting roughly 7,200 new entrants, a gap that could leave the province short by as many as 1,300 workers. New Brunswick expects 6,600 retirements, about 20% of its workforce, but with only 6,400 projected new entrants against a shrinking overall labor need, the province could actually see a surplus of up to 1,300 workers by 2035.
Analysis
The divergence between these two provinces is really a story about what kind of work is coming, not just how much. Nova Scotia’s growth is anchored in healthcare construction and engineering work tied to mining and utilities, sectors that typically demand specialized trades, mechanical and electrical subcontractors, and crews comfortable with long-duration institutional builds. New Brunswick’s non-residential pipeline leans on energy infrastructure and government facilities, which similarly favor heavy civil, electrical, and mechanical trades over the framing and finishing crews that thrive on housing starts.
That distinction matters because the labor numbers cut in opposite directions. Nova Scotia’s projected shortfall of 1,300 workers signals a tightening market where subcontractors with the right trade mix can expect leverage on pricing and schedule. New Brunswick’s projected surplus sounds like good news for staffing, but it masks a harder problem: workers trained for residential builds may not have the certifications or experience needed for hydro dam refurbishment or correctional facility work. Irwin Bess of BuildForce Canada flagged that New Brunswick’s forecast doesn’t even account for potential small modular reactor, mining, or renewable energy projects that could push demand higher if they reach final investment decision. That’s a wildcard subcontractors should keep on their radar, not a guarantee.
The tariff dispute over softwood lumber adds another layer of risk specific to New Brunswick, where BuildForce says it already dragged on 2025 growth and could pressure 2026 activity further. For subcontractors tied to residential supply chains in that province, cost volatility on lumber-dependent projects is a near-term concern layered on top of the longer-term housing slowdown.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Nova Scotia subcontractors in mechanical, electrical, and institutional trades should track QEII Halifax Infirmary and Cape Breton Regional Hospital Development timelines, since ICI building investment is projected to peak in 2029 and these two projects anchor that growth.
- Engineering and heavy civil contractors in Nova Scotia have a longer runway, with BuildForce projecting engineering construction investment to keep climbing toward a new peak in 2035 on mining and utilities work.
- New Brunswick subcontractors should plan for core construction starting in 2027 on the Mactaquac Hydro Dam Refurbishment, a multi-year project likely to require civil, mechanical, and electrical subcontract packages tied to NB Power’s capital program.
- Residential-focused trades in New Brunswick should prepare for a 56% drop in housing starts by 2035 and start positioning for renovation work, which BuildForce expects to overtake new housing investment by 2028.
- Firms bidding on New Brunswick government work should watch three specific projects moving forward: the RCMP detachment in Salisbury, the Fredericton Courthouse, and the new correctional centre in Minto.
- Nova Scotia contractors should factor in a potential 1,300-worker shortfall by 2035 when locking in labor rates and subcontract pricing, particularly in trades tied to the 22% projected growth in non-residential employment.
- New Brunswick firms should watch for final investment decisions on small modular reactors, mining, and energy-transmission projects that BuildForce is tracking but hasn’t yet built into its forecast, any of which could shift labor demand well beyond current projections.
