Duke Holds $103B Gas-Heavy Plan as Data Center Pipeline Stays Flat
Duke Energy plans to raise spending from about $1.5 billion to $2 billion per month next year, even though its 15.4 GW large-load pipeline has barely moved since the first quarter of 2026, Utility Dive reports. On the Q3 earnings call, CEO Harry Sideris said the $103 billion plan is unchanged after this week’s elections, where many voters backed candidates promising to rein in data centers.
Signed electric service agreements total 7.8 GW, up 200 MW from Q1. Sideris said the remaining 7.6 GW is taking longer because of “complexities.” By 2031, Duke plans 4.8 GW of battery storage and more than 10 GW of new gas generation. About 5 GW of the gas is already under construction in North Carolina and Indiana. Turbines and gas supply are under contract.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Gas plant trades: Civil, mechanical, electrical, and pipefitting work on the roughly 5 GW already under construction in North Carolina and Indiana is the firmest demand. Turbines are contracted, so the open piece is likely field labor (our inference). Confirm crew availability now for 2027, when spending steps up.
- Don’t staff for data center hype: Signed agreements grew only 200 MW since Q1, and Sideris said the remaining 7.6 GW is taking longer to sign because of “complexities.” Add headcount against awarded packages, not the pipeline.
- Permitting and tariff risk: North Carolina regulators denied a 255 MW gas unit over cost and need. A 2.8 GW North Carolina gas project is still being explored, alongside an LNG storage facility. Duke’s regulatory filings point to a North Carolina large-load tariff decision by mid-November, and Ohio rate hearings are set for January. Treat uncommitted projects as upside, not backlog.
