BofA Sees 100+ GW Power Gap Fueling On-Site Gas, Battery Boom

BofA Sees 100+ GW Power Gap Fueling On-Site Gas, Battery Boom

Bank of America analysts project that AI-driven data center demand will outpace US utility generation additions by more than 100 GW through 2030, a shortfall the bank says will push developers toward on-site gas engines, battery storage and life extensions for aging coal plants, Utility Dive reports.

Background

According to Utility Dive, BofA’s research team forecasts the United States will need more than 230 GW of new generating capacity over the next five years, but regulated utilities are on track to add only about 93 GW of accredited supply. Data centers alone could account for roughly 125 GW of new electric load during that window, driving overall electricity demand growth to a 4.1% compound annual growth rate from 2026 through 2030.

Utility Dive reports that large gas turbines, the traditional go-to for flexible power generation, are largely sold out through 2030, forcing both utilities and data center developers to look elsewhere. BofA analysts identified more than 7.5 GW of data center projects with on-site generation already under construction, with another 60-plus GW in pre-construction planning. The report also names specific coal plants in Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi where retirement dates have been delayed or canceled to preserve dispatchable capacity, per Utility Dive’s coverage of the BofA analysis.

Analysis

The turbine bottleneck is the real story here for field services companies. When BofA says large gas turbines are sold out through 2030, that’s not a temporary supply hiccup, it’s a multi-year reshuffling of where power infrastructure gets built and who builds it. Utility-scale gas plants take years to permit, procure equipment for, and construct. Data center developers don’t have years. That mismatch is exactly why the report points to natural gas reciprocating engines, supplied by manufacturers like Caterpillar, INNIO, Rolls-Royce and Wärtsilä, as the faster-to-deploy alternative.

This shifts a meaningful chunk of new generation work away from massive utility EPC programs and toward smaller, faster, distributed builds sited directly at or near data center campuses. Reciprocating engine packages, battery storage systems, and hybrid grid-plus-on-site setups all require different crews, different timelines, and different procurement chains than a traditional combined-cycle gas plant. That’s a structural change in project mix, not just a temporary demand spike.

The transmission side reinforces this. BofA’s own example, the Champlain Hudson Power Express, took 16 years from planning to energization. No data center developer chasing AI compute demand is going to wait 16 years for new transmission to solve their power problem. That timeline gap is precisely why behind-the-meter generation is becoming the default strategy rather than a workaround.

There’s also a quieter signal in the report worth flagging: utilities have revised demand forecasts upward for three straight years because AI-related load materialized faster than expected. That pattern suggests the 100+ GW gap BofA is citing could widen further if chip deployment continues to outpace prior projections, which would only accelerate the shift toward on-site and modular generation solutions.

What It Means for Subcontractors

• Gas engine EPC work is a growing lane. With large turbines committed through 2030, expect more contracts for reciprocating gas engine installations at data center sites. Electrical, mechanical, and E&I subs should get familiar with Caterpillar, INNIO, Rolls-Royce and Wärtsilä equipment specs now, since these are the manufacturers BofA names as scaling up production.
• Battery storage installation demand is rising alongside gas. BofA points to batteries as a key tool for utilities managing reliability gaps. Subs with battery energy storage system (BESS) installation experience should position for both utility-scale and behind-the-meter projects tied to data center campuses.
• Coal plant life-extension work is concrete, not speculative. The report names specific plants in Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska and Mississippi where retirements have been delayed or canceled. Mechanical and instrumentation subs in those states should watch for maintenance and upgrade contracts tied to extended operating life.
• Behind-the-meter hybrid projects mean faster, smaller jobs. Instead of waiting on multi-year utility transmission builds, more than 60 GW of data center projects with on-site generation are in pre-construction. That favors subs who can mobilize quickly on compact, campus-scale generation packages rather than utility-scale plant construction.
• Transmission upgrade work will keep moving, just slowly. BofA cites the 16-year Champlain Hudson Power Express timeline as the norm for major transmission projects. Civil and line-construction subs bidding transmission packages should plan staffing and equipment commitments around multi-year, not multi-month, project horizons.