Immigrants Drove All Trades Workforce Growth Since 2013, Harvard Finds
Immigrants accounted for all net growth in the US construction trades workforce from 2013 to 2024, a Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies brief finds, Construction Dive reports.
Market Impact
Foreign-born workers made up 35% of construction trades workers in 2024, versus 18% of the overall labor force. Their share topped 50% among drywall installers, plasterers, roofers, painters and flooring installers. The report describes those jobs as physically demanding and lower-paying.
The trades workforce totaled 6.2 million in 2024, still 700,000 below its pre-recession level. Foreign-born employment rose by 468,000 between 2013 and 2024. Researcher Riordan Frost said U.S.-born employment has grown in higher-paying occupations such as electrical and plumbing work. “The trades workforce is still not where it was before the recession,” Frost said. “But the recovery that it has seen has been because of immigrants.”
Age is the pressure point. Nearly all growth in foreign-born trades workers since 2013 came from those 30 and older. Among foreign-born trades workers under 30, 76% arrived within the previous decade. Net international migration fell from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. Frost warned of difficulty filling lower-wage occupations if immigration keeps declining. The brief does not break out age by individual trade or separate residential from nonresidential workers.
Geography matters too. Immigrants made up about 75% of trades workers in the Miami metro, compared with roughly 6% in St. Louis.
ABC chief economist Anirban Basu said immigration limits mainly constrain less specialized occupations, while data center work is concentrating hiring in electrical and HVAC. He expects a sustained slowdown to push up labor costs and bids, though high borrowing costs and weaker demand could blunt that.
AGC’s September survey found 87% of respondents had hourly craft openings, and 88% of those firms said the jobs were as hard or harder to fill than a year earlier. Twelve percent reported workers leaving or not showing up because of actual or rumored enforcement, and 16% reported subcontractors losing workers.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Finishing trades: If you run drywall, plaster, roofing, painting or flooring crews, more than half your workforce could be foreign-born on the report’s national numbers. Our illustration: on a 20-person crew, that is 11 or more people. Map how many of your leads and journeyman-level workers are over 30, since that group drove nearly all foreign-born growth.
- Under-30 pipeline: With 76% of foreign-born trades workers under 30 having arrived in the last decade, and net migration down from 2.7 million to 1.3 million, your entry-level replacement pool is the most exposed. Price apprentice and helper hiring into bids now.
- Electrical and HVAC: Basu says weaker residential activity will not materially free up these supply-constrained trades for data center work. Do not count on residential layoffs to fill electrical and HVAC openings. Lock in retention pay and training for current staff.
- Metro exposure: Miami’s roughly 75% immigrant share versus St. Louis at 6% shows risk varies by market. Our inference: Miami-area trades firms face far more disruption from enforcement or migration declines than St. Louis firms.
- Enforcement risk: AGC’s September survey found 16% of respondents reported subcontractors losing workers. Build crew-loss contingencies into subcontracts and schedules, since craft shortages can delay later stages or final completion of a project.
- Bid pricing: Basu expects higher labor costs and bids if the slowdown continues. Escalation clauses on labor are worth raising in any long-duration contract.
