EIA: Solar Generation to Jump 21% in 2026 on Data Center Demand
U.S. solar generation is set to climb 21% in 2026 and another 18% in 2027 as data center construction and manufacturing expansion push electricity demand to record levels, Utility Dive reports, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released Sept. 9, 2026.
Market Impact
EIA projects total U.S. electricity consumption will grow 2% in both 2026 and 2027, with total sales reaching 4,211 billion kWh in 2027. The commercial sector will drive most of that growth, with sales expanding 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, accounting for 63% and 56% of the annual increase, respectively.
On the generation side, EIA said wind and solar capacity additions are outpacing other sources. Wind generation is forecast to grow 7% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, while natural gas generation rises 2% and 1% over the same period. Coal generation, by contrast, is expected to fall 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, even as coal exports increase. Solar growth is concentrated in two markets: ERCOT and MISO. EIA expects 18 billion kWh of added solar generation in ERCOT and 13 billion kWh in MISO this year, followed by another 20 billion kWh in ERCOT and 11 billion kWh in MISO in 2027. The PJM Interconnection market accounts for nearly 45% of total U.S. generation growth EIA is forecasting, driven largely by natural gas in 2026 and a mix of natural gas, coal, and wind in 2027.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Utility-scale solar EPC and O&M crews should expect sustained project pipelines in Texas (ERCOT) and the Midwest (MISO) through 2027, based on EIA’s forecast of 18 BkWh and 13 BkWh in added solar generation in those markets in 2026 alone.
- Electrical and E&I contractors tied to natural gas generation projects have work through 2027 as well, since EIA expects gas generation to grow 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, with PJM accounting for nearly 45% of total U.S. generation growth.
- Coal-adjacent trades, including maintenance and mechanical contractors at coal plants, face continued contraction as EIA projects domestic coal demand from the power sector will fall 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027.
- Commercial electrical contractors should note that commercial sector electricity sales growth (3.3% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027) is being driven substantially by data center buildouts, a signal to track new data center construction announcements in their service regions for upcoming subcontract packages.
- Wind trades, including turbine technicians and civil crews for wind farm interconnection work, can expect more modest but still positive growth, with EIA forecasting 7% wind generation growth in 2026 and 5% in 2027.
