BuildForce Forecasts $500B in Major Canadian Projects Through 2035
A new 10-year forecast from BuildForce Canada shows the country’s non-residential construction sector on track for a wave of major engineering work, with 800 major projects worth $500 billion in the pipeline through 2035, Daily Commercial News reports.
The projects span transit expansions in Alberta, British Columbia and multiple regions of Ontario, along with water and wastewater infrastructure, utility builds, and health care and education projects. For subcontractors in mechanical, electrical, civil and heavy infrastructure trades, that pipeline represents a decade of bidding opportunity even as the residential side of the market cools.
Background
BuildForce Canada released its Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward reports for the residential and non-residential sectors on July 20, according to Daily Commercial News. The reports forecast modest overall growth in non-residential construction investment, roughly 2% over the 2026-2035 period, with the strongest gains concentrated early in the forecast window. Investment is projected to climb about 8% to a peak in 2029 before leveling off.
Residential construction tells a different story. BuildForce projects national residential employment will decline 4% by 2028, with investment continuing to fall through that year before rebounding later in the decade. The agency attributes the slowdown to higher interest rates, weaker population growth, and uncertainty tied to the Canada-U.S. tariff dispute. Road, highway and bridge construction is also expected to drop, down 17% compared to 2025 levels by 2035.
BuildForce executive director Irwin Bess said the non-residential trend line matters more than any single year’s number. “It’s important to look at the steady trend in terms of where we’re going here on the non-residential side, and it points to sustained capital investment throughout the forecast period,” Bess said, according to Daily Commercial News. He added that in some regions, large capital projects are offsetting declines on the residential side.
On labor, BuildForce estimates the industry will need 49,600 additional workers beyond replacing retirees, bringing total hiring needs to 188,700 workers by 2035. With an estimated 158,300 new entrants under 30 expected to join the workforce, the agency projects a shortfall of roughly 30,400 workers by 2035.
Analysis
The gap between residential and non-residential trajectories is the real story for field service firms. A subcontractor that built its book of business around single-family and multi-unit residential work is staring at four more years of contraction before any rebound materializes. Firms with civil, mechanical, electrical, or E&I capabilities tied to transit, water infrastructure, and institutional builds are looking at a much steadier runway, with the 2029 investment peak acting as a planning marker for staffing and equipment decisions now.
The $500 billion figure across 800 projects is a national aggregate, not a guarantee that any single subcontractor sees proportional benefit. But the composition of that pipeline, heavy on transit and utility infrastructure in Alberta, BC and Ontario, plus health care and education spending, tells trades where to position. Firms without a presence in those provinces or without transit and infrastructure experience on their resumes may need to build that track record now to compete for subcontract packages as projects move from planning to construction over the next several years.
The labor shortfall projection, 30,400 workers by 2035, is arguably more consequential for smaller subcontractors than the dollar figure. A tightening labor market means wage pressure and longer lead times to staff up for new awards. Bess flagged that BuildForce is also tracking a “watch list” of projects that haven’t reached final investment decision, including federal Major Projects list items and western oil and gas developments. Any of those getting greenlit would pull labor toward specific regions, particularly the North and Western Canada, creating localized crunches even if the national numbers look manageable.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Civil, mechanical, and electrical trades should prioritize qualifying for transit work in Alberta, BC, and Ontario now, since BuildForce identifies these as the primary drivers of the 2026-2029 non-residential investment climb.
- Firms tied to residential construction should plan for continued softness through 2028, per BuildForce’s forecast of a 4% employment decline nationally, and consider diversifying into water/wastewater or utility subcontract work where investment is rising.
- Water and wastewater infrastructure and utility project subcontractors should expect bid volume to build toward a 2029 investment peak, giving firms roughly three years to secure the labor and equipment capacity needed to compete.
- Companies serving road, highway, and bridge projects should note BuildForce’s projected 17% decline in that segment by 2035 compared to 2025 levels, and reassess reliance on public infrastructure contracts in that category.
- Labor-strapped subcontractors should track BuildForce’s 30,400-worker shortfall projection for 2035 and start recruitment pipelines now, with particular attention to Indigenous workforce programs, which BuildForce says represent 4.8% of the construction labor force and a fast-growing recruitment pool.
- Firms with western Canada or northern operations should monitor BuildForce’s watch list of unapproved federal Major Projects and oil and gas developments, since any FID announcements there could quickly pull labor and subcontract capacity away from other regional projects.
