IAEA Triples Nuclear Forecast, Bets Big on Small Reactors
Oilprice.com reports that the International Atomic Energy Agency has sharply raised its long-term nuclear forecast, now projecting global nuclear capacity will triple by 2060 with small modular reactors (SMRs) driving much of that growth. The IAEA’s high-growth scenario puts SMRs at 28% of new nuclear capacity by 2060, up from a prior high-case estimate of 24%. Even the low-growth case jumped from 5% to 23%, a signal of rising confidence in the technology after years of delayed timelines and funding gaps.
The agency singled out North America as the strongest growth market, projecting SMRs could account for about 60% of new nuclear capacity added in the region. That forecast lands as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a fast-tracked construction plan for two SMRs at the Palisades Energy Center in Michigan, clearing the site to break ground before a full Limited Work Authorization is issued. The two units are expected to produce a combined 680 megawatts. Oilprice.com also notes that surging AI data center power demand is pushing tech companies to back SMRs as a lower-emissions complement to the natural gas capacity currently being built to meet that demand.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- The NRC’s fast-tracked approval at Palisades signals regulators may allow site work, civil, and foundation crews to mobilize before full licensing is complete on future SMR projects, a shift worth tracking for firms bidding on nuclear site prep work.
- With North America projected to capture roughly 60% of new SMR capacity by 2060, expect a growing pipeline of site development, E&I, and mechanical subcontract packages tied to utility and hyperscale data center power projects over the coming decade.
- IEEFA’s David Schlissel cautions that built and under-construction SMRs have not yet proven cost-competitive, a reminder for subcontractors to vet project financing and owner commitments before committing crews to early-stage SMR bids.
