EIA Sees Brent Peaking at $115/bbl in Q2 2026 as Hormuz Disruptions Tighten Supply
According to Oil & Gas Journal, the US Energy Information Administration’s April Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude averaged $103/bbl in March 2026 and will peak at roughly $115/bbl in the second quarter, driven by widespread production shut-ins tied to conflict-related disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA estimates shut-ins reached 7.5 million b/d in March and will peak near 9.1 million b/d in April. Prices are expected to fall back below $90/bbl by Q4 2026 as supply gradually recovers.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- High prices don’t automatically mean more drilling. If Permian and Bakken operators stay capital-disciplined, as many pledged to shareholders, rig counts may not spike the way they have in previous price surges.
- The price spike is expected to be short-lived. EIA sees Brent averaging $76/bbl in 2027, so subcontractors should be cautious about making long-term equipment or hiring commitments based on current conditions.
- Geopolitical risk premiums tend to inflate operator caution. Expect slower contract decisions and tighter project approval cycles until the supply picture stabilizes in late 2026.
