Data Centers and EVs Will Drive 55% Jump in US Electricity Demand by 2050, NEMA Forecasts

Data Centers and EVs Will Drive 55% Jump in US Electricity Demand by 2050, NEMA Forecasts

According to Construction Dive, the National Electrical Manufacturers Association has revised its US electricity demand forecast sharply upward, now projecting annual consumption will grow more than 55% by 2050, up from a 50% growth estimate the group published just a year earlier. NEMA expects net electricity consumption to climb from 3,936 TWh in 2024 to 6,130 TWh in 2050, with NEMA President and CEO Debra Phillips stating that “the trajectory has only steepened.”

For electrical subcontractors and utility service companies, that single upward revision tells you everything you need to know: the buildout is accelerating, not leveling off, and the companies positioning now will have a structural advantage over those waiting to see how it plays out.

Background

NEMA published its updated forecast on May 7, 2026, building on analysis it released in April 2025. The revision reflects the continued pace of data center expansion announcements and the growing energy intensity of artificial intelligence workloads.

The numbers are striking. Data center energy consumption is projected to grow 300% over the next 10 years, and data centers alone are expected to account for 38% of net US electricity consumption through 2037. The electric transportation sector adds another layer, with NEMA projecting a 2,000% increase in electricity consumption from that segment through 2050. The group expects roughly 51 million light-duty EVs on US roads by 2035, compared with more than 5.7 million today, according to Argonne National Laboratory data cited in the report.

Electricity’s share of total final energy delivered in the US is projected to grow from 18% to 28% by 2050, reflecting broad electrification across sectors, not just data centers and transportation.

On the generation side, NEMA describes a “seismic change” in the mix: storage, wind, and solar generation are expected to increase by 300%. By 2043, NEMA’s outlook calls for 303 GW of standalone battery storage, 568 GW of solar, and 408 GW of wind capacity. Renewables are expected to exceed 50% of generation capacity in the Western US, New York, and the Southeast.

Geographically, the largest growth in data center demand through 2035 will be concentrated in the mid-Atlantic and Texas regions, while the Northeast and West will see the most significant EV-driven electricity growth through midcentury.

Analysis

The upgrade from a 50% to a 55% growth forecast in a single year is not a rounding error. It reflects a demand curve that is being redrawn in real time by hyperscaler capital spending and AI infrastructure investment. When an industry body like NEMA, which represents electrical equipment manufacturers with a direct financial interest in accurate forecasting, raises its own projection by this much this quickly, the field should take notice.

The regional signals are particularly useful for subcontractors trying to decide where to invest. Texas and the mid-Atlantic are already the epicenters of data center construction, and NEMA’s forecast confirms that concentration will intensify through 2035. For electrical contractors in Texas, the Permian Basin corridor, and Northern Virginia adjacents, this is a long-duration demand signal, not a one-cycle boom.

The 2,000% increase in electric transportation electricity consumption is a slower burn but equally consequential. EV charging infrastructure, fleet electrification depots, and grid interconnection work represent a parallel workstream to data centers, one that will peak later but will demand significant civil, electrical, and utility work across the Northeast and West in the 2030s and 2040s.

The generation mix shift is equally important. A 300% increase in storage, wind, and solar capacity means an enormous pipeline of installation and interconnection work. NEMA’s 2043 targets of 303 GW of battery storage, 568 GW of solar, and 408 GW of wind represent infrastructure that largely does not exist yet. That work has to be built, connected, and maintained by field crews.

The NEMA forecast also points to grid enhancing technologies, demand response, and behind-the-meter resources as part of the solution. That language signals continued investment in microgrid, energy storage, and distributed energy resource installation, work that increasingly falls to specialty electrical subcontractors rather than traditional utilities.

What It Means for Subcontractors

• Texas and mid-Atlantic data center work is a decade-long runway, not a short cycle. If your company operates in Texas, now is the time to build out data center electrical capacity, certifications, and relationships with general contractors active in that space.

• Workforce planning can’t wait for the projects to arrive. NEMA’s steepest growth is concentrated in the current decade. Electrical subcontractors who are hiring and training journeymen now will be better positioned than those trying to staff up when the projects are already underway and labor is fully committed elsewhere.

• Renewables and storage represent a parallel pipeline. The 300% growth in solar, wind, and battery storage capacity is not abstract. It translates directly into installation and interconnection contracts. Subcontractors who build competency in storage and solar interconnection now are positioning for work that will span decades.

• EV infrastructure is a slower but real opportunity. The projected growth in EV numbers, reaching 51 million light-duty vehicles by 2035, will require substantial charging infrastructure buildout, particularly in the Northeast and West. Electrical subcontractors in those markets should be evaluating their readiness for commercial fleet and public charging installation now.

• Material and equipment lead times will tighten. A 55% growth in consumption means transformers, switchgear, and cabling will face sustained demand pressure. Subcontractors who build supplier relationships and improve procurement planning today will avoid the delays that will plague competitors when demand peaks.

• Price your long-term bids accordingly. If demand growth is concentrated in the current decade, labor and material costs will follow. Fixed-price contracts that extend several years carry real risk in this environment. Build escalation provisions into agreements wherever possible.