Canadian Pipeline Confidence Drops to 46% as Federal Review Timeline Remains Uncertain
According to a Canadian Press report via BOE Report, a business sentiment survey from ATB Cormark Capital Markets shows declining industry confidence that a new oil pipeline will receive a national interest designation under federal legislation within the next year.
Confidence Slips on West Coast Pipeline, But Keystone XL Revival Draws Interest
The ATB Cormark survey, conducted between March 18 and April 1, canvassed executives from 24 energy services firms, 22 exploration and production companies, and 17 institutional investors. Only 46% of respondents said they believed it was highly probable or probable that a new pipeline would be added to the national interest project list, down from 52% in a previous survey conducted between August 28 and September 11 of last year. That earlier poll was taken before Alberta and Ottawa announced an energy accord that laid out conditions for a new West Coast oil pipeline.
On a more positive note, 48% of respondents said they believed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government would actively work toward expanding the energy sector, up from 37% in the fall 2025 poll. Respondents also expressed greater optimism about a proposal to revive a portion of the defunct Keystone XL pipeline, a project being pursued by South Bow Corp. alongside Bridger Pipeline LLC, than about any West Coast pipeline option. No private-sector company has yet expressed interest in building a West Coast line, according to the report.
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Watch the Keystone XL revival closely. Respondent optimism around South Bow Corp. and Bridger Pipeline LLC’s Keystone XL proposal suggests that cross-border pipeline work may be a more credible near-term opportunity for contractors in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and US corridor states including Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska.
- Don’t bank on a West Coast pipeline backlog. With confidence in a national interest designation falling and no private-sector proponent identified, energy services subcontractors in British Columbia and Alberta should avoid building 2026-2027 capacity plans around a West Coast pipeline project materializing on a near-term timeline.
- Stress-test your pipeline revenue assumptions now. With sentiment shifting even after a major federal-provincial energy accord, the window to identify alternative project sources is open today, not after backlogs thin out.
- Track federal posture as a leading indicator. The jump in confidence around Carney government energy support (37% to 48%) is worth monitoring. A formal national interest designation, if it comes, could trigger rapid procurement activity and reward contractors already positioned with qualified crews and equipment.
