Atlantic Canada Labor Forecast Splits: P.E.I. Cools, N.L. Set to Ramp Up Hiring

Atlantic Canada Labor Forecast Splits: P.E.I. Cools, N.L. Set to Ramp Up Hiring

Prince Edward Island’s construction sector is stepping down from record highs while Newfoundland and Labrador is gearing up for a wave of major project work, according to a new 10-year forecast from BuildForce Canada covered by the Daily Commercial News. For subcontractors weighing where to deploy crews across Atlantic Canada, the two provinces are telling very different stories through 2035.

Background

BuildForce Canada’s annual Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report, covering 2026 to 2035, shows P.E.I.’s construction sector rode a wave of elevated residential and non-residential activity through 2025, but that momentum is expected to fade. New-housing construction is projected to contract into 2028 before a modest recovery, and residential employment overall is forecast to drop nine percent by 2035 compared to 2025 levels, with new-housing employment down 26 percent. Non-residential work, driven heavily by engineering projects like Enwave Energy’s Energy from Waste Renewal and electricity capacity expansion, along with ICI builds in health care, education and government, is expected to wind down after peaking in 2025 and 2026, ending the forecast period about eight percent below 2026 employment levels.

The labor math in P.E.I. reflects that pullback. BuildForce projects hiring needs will contract by 480 workers over the decade due to slowing demand, but 1,650 workers are also expected to retire, pushing total hiring needs to as high as 1,170 workers. An estimated 1,720 new entrants under 30 could fill that gap, potentially leaving a surplus of up to 550 workers who may leave the province for construction work elsewhere.

Newfoundland and Labrador is headed the opposite direction. After a modest contraction in 2025, non-residential investment is projected to grow nearly 25 percent through 2035, fueled by major projects including the Bay du Nord offshore oil development and the Churchill Falls Generating Station expansion. ICI building investment is also set to climb, with named projects like the $692.8 million Adult Corrections Facility Replacement in St. John’s, the St. John’s Penitentiary, and the Canada Revenue Agency National Verification and Collection Centre. Non-residential employment is projected to rise 15 percent by 2035 versus 2025, with ICI-related employment alone up 27 percent. But an aging workforce looms large: as many as 5,900 workers, 30 percent of the 2025 labor force, are expected to retire by 2035, pushing total hiring needs to 5,700 workers against an estimated 4,100 new entrants, leaving a projected gap of 1,600 workers.

Analysis

The contrast between these two provinces underscores a pattern playing out across Canada’s construction labor market: pandemic-era demand surges are cooling in smaller markets while energy and institutional megaprojects are propping up activity in resource-heavy provinces. P.E.I.’s Sam Sanderson, executive director of the Construction Association of Prince Edward Island, framed the slowdown as a step down from unsustainable highs rather than a collapse, noting investment will remain at or above historical averages even as the sector contracts. That matters for subcontractors currently staffed up for P.E.I.’s boom years. A projected surplus of 550 workers signals real risk of underemployment locally, and BuildForce’s own data suggests some of that labor will migrate toward provinces with stronger pipelines, likely Newfoundland and Labrador or other Atlantic and Central Canada markets with active megaprojects.

Newfoundland and Labrador presents the inverse problem: real project momentum without enough labor supply to match it. Bob Fiander of Trades NL cautioned that much of the projected growth hinges on projects not yet approved for final investment decisions, and on energy transmission buildout that hasn’t been locked in. That’s a critical qualifier for any subcontractor eyeing the province. The upside is real, Bay du Nord and Churchill Falls are large-scale, multi-year builds, but the timeline and scale depend on investment decisions still pending. Terry French of the Construction Labour Relations Association of Newfoundland and Labrador struck a more bullish tone, calling the long-term non-residential outlook genuinely optimistic given the pipeline of major projects and a labor force positioned to respond.

For trades like electrical, mechanical, and civil work tied to offshore energy and power generation, the Newfoundland and Labrador forecast points to sustained multi-year demand once these projects clear final investment hurdles. ICI-focused subcontractors, including those in institutional and government construction, have more certainty given the named, already-underway projects like the corrections facility and the CRA center.

What It Means for Subcontractors

• P.E.I.-based residential subcontractors should plan for contracting new-housing work through 2028, with the sharpest drop concentrated in new-build residential employment (down 26 percent by 2035); renovation and repair work may offer more stable near-term volume.
• Crews and firms in P.E.I.’s engineering and utilities space should note that non-residential activity peaked in 2025-2026 tied to projects like Enwave Energy’s Energy from Waste Renewal; expect fewer comparable contracts as that work concludes into the early 2030s.
• With BuildForce projecting a potential surplus of 550 P.E.I. construction workers by 2035, subcontractors there should evaluate cross-provincial staffing arrangements now rather than waiting for local demand to fully dry up.
• Newfoundland and Labrador subcontractors in ICI construction can point to confirmed, named work including the $692.8 million St. John’s corrections facility, the St. John’s Penitentiary, and the CRA National Verification and Collection Centre as near-term bidding targets.
• Firms tied to offshore energy or power generation trades (mechanical, E&I, civil) should track final investment decisions on Bay du Nord and the Churchill Falls Generating Station expansion, since Trades NL’s Bob Fiander flagged these as not yet fully approved despite driving the province’s 2031 non-residential peak forecast.
• With Newfoundland and Labrador facing a projected 1,600-worker hiring gap by 2035 against 5,700 total hiring needs, subcontractors should start recruitment and training pipelines now, particularly for trades feeding ICI and energy-sector projects, to avoid bottlenecks when megaprojects reach construction phase.