Canadian Steel Exports Down $500M Per Month as Tariff Pain Outpaces Aluminum Sector
According to Mining.com, Canada’s steel industry is suffering more severe and potentially longer-lasting disruption from U.S. tariffs than its aluminum sector, with a senior PwC Canada economist warning that federal support measures are designed to buy time rather than fix the underlying problem.
Market Impact
In an interview with Mining.com, Gemma Stanton-Hagan, director of economics and policy at PwC Canada, said Canadian steel export values to the U.S. have collapsed to roughly a third of pre-tariff levels. “So far this year on a monthly basis, steel exports are about $500 million lower than they were pre-tariffs,” Stanton-Hagan said. “That’s every month revenue is $500 million lower than it would have been.”
Ottawa’s support package, which includes $1 billion in loans and $500 million for business diversification initiatives, was described by Stanton-Hagan as a “relatively short-term solution,” noting that many affected companies are large multinationals with deeper capital reserves.
The core problem for steel is structural. Historically, between 85% and 90% of Canadian steel exports went to the United States before tariffs were imposed. While aluminum producers have managed to recover some volume by redirecting shipments to Europe, steel has no comparable escape valve. “There’s global oversupply of steel,” Stanton-Hagan said. “Canada produces steel for domestic usage and then also mostly for the U.S., so we really don’t have those other trade relationships.” Aluminum, despite having roughly 94% of its exports concentrated in the U.S. market before tariffs, has seen stronger recovery through growing European sales.
Additional uncertainty hangs over the sector heading into the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
What It Means for Subcontractors
- Expect continued steel cost volatility on Canadian projects. With monthly export revenue down $500 million and no clear alternative markets, Canadian producers face sustained financial pressure that could ripple into domestic pricing and supply availability.
- Build material cost uncertainty into bids. The PwC economist characterized federal support as a short-term bridge, not a fix. Subcontractors pricing longer-duration contracts should account for the possibility that steel supply disruptions continue well beyond current conditions.
- Aluminum may offer more pricing stability near-term. Compared to steel, aluminum producers have shown stronger export recovery. Where specs allow substitution, this distinction may be worth discussing with procurement teams and general contractors.
- Watch CUSMA review developments closely. Trade policy uncertainty tied to the CUSMA review adds another layer of risk to material forecasting. Subcontractors with significant steel exposure on multi-year projects should flag this to project owners and insurers.
